Investment Update September 3, 2025

Last Week on Wall Street

Economic data for the week included U.S. GDP growth for the 2nd quarter being upgraded a bit, and continued growth in personal income and spending. On the weaker side were durable goods orders, home prices, and consumer sentiment.

Equities were flat in the U.S. but fell several percent overseas. Bonds were little-changed for the week. Commodities rose a bit across the board, led by gold.

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower in a pre-Labor Day light trading week that many consider to be the end of the summer season. The big earnings news of the week was Nvidia, which reported over-50% revenue growth year-over-year, which is exceptional by most any metric, yet underwhelmed investors a bit. In other technology news, it was announced that the U.S. government will be taking a 10% equity stake in Intel, in efforts to boost domestic chip manufacturing (which is currently dominated by Taiwan, in a geopolitically precarious position). By Friday, a stronger inflation report soured the mood a bit, as it pointed to price pressures making their way through the system. By sector, energy stocks saw gains of several percent, followed by financials and communications, while defensives, utilities and consumer staples lost several percent. Real estate stocks were little changed.

Foreign stocks saw losses of several percent, lagging U.S. stocks for the week. Europe performed the worst of the group, with concerns over U.S. tariff policy impacts, renewed inflation concerns, political consternation in France, and perhaps some lost patience regarding a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. French yield spreads moved upward again after the prime minister called another confidence vote, as the government can’t agree on budget reforms. In emerging markets, gains in Brazil were offset by declines elsewhere, similar to the rest of the world.

Bonds were generally flat for the week, with U.S. government bonds outpacing corporate bonds slightly, as interest rates were little-changed across the yield curve. Foreign developed bonds outperformed emerging markets by a bit as well.

Commodities rose across the board, albeit slightly, led by precious metals, up a few percent to outpace the other groups. Crude oil prices bounced around within a tight range, ending just slightly higher at $64/barrel, with Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure offset by OPEC+ supply increases elsewhere. Natural gas prices moved sharply higher, due to lower inventories and cooling needs in parts of the country along with various predictions for upcoming winter weather.

(Source LSAConnect)

Fact of the Week

The percent of people aged 16 to 24 who were employed in July 2025 decreased to 53.1%, down from 54.5% in July 2024. However, the youth labor force grew from 21.7 million in April 2025 to 23.7 million in July 2025 (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).